Poll: most blame legislature for budget impasse; McCain's lead in AZ narrow

A Bruce Merrill Channel 8 poll found voters overwhelmingly would find the legislature, and not the Governor, responsible if state government were to shut down next week due to the lack of a budget. The poll also found a narrow 10 point lead for McCain over Obama in Arizona, with a third of voters undecided. However, McCain's lead grows to 15 points if Obama has Clinton on the ticket as VP.

State budget deal near; but who gets cut?

With the clock ticking to the new fiscal year that begins July 1, and the threat of state employees not getting a paycheck next week, Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives Jim Weiers yesterday announced a budget proposal to bridge the state's roughly $2.2 billion budget deficit. However, it remains to be seen whether Weiers has the votes to pass the budget through his House of Representatives, let alone through the Senate, where Senate President (and congressional candidate) Tim Bee has put together an alternate budget proposal, that appears to be more to the Governor's liking as well. Weiers held a press conference yesterday, while Bee will announce his this morning. Votes are likely tomorrow.

So what's the difference? The Bee/Napolitano proposal relies a little more on borrowing, and appears to not entirely close the full $2.2 billion deficit as required by the state constitution. Bee and Napolitano's proposal will likely rely on revenue estimates from April of what the state will take in for tax collections, rather than more up to date estimates that show a slowing economy producing less tax revenue. If the latest estimates turn out to be true, the legislature will have to "fix" the new budget in the middle of the fiscal year, meaning sometime after the election. Can you blame them for not wanting to make the difficult decisions before the election? Well, perhaps you can. Meanwhile, Speaker Weiers makes those difficult decisions in his budget proposal. Well, Weiers' budget only involves difficult decisions if you think it was difficult for him to propose eliminating health insurance for 14,000 low-income parents and several hundred low-income pregnant women. Details of the cuts in each proposal are still forthcoming.

Racial gap in AP exams narrowing in AZ; Rural students less likely to take AP exams

Data from the College Board, shows the racial gap that exists in AP exams is narrowing in Arizona. For example, African-American students made up a 12% greater share of Arizona's student population in 2007 than they did in 2002, but the share of students taking AP exams who were African-Americans jumped by 63% during the same period. Latino students grew 18% as a share of the student population from 2002-2007, but 41% as a share of those taking AP exams. Those scoring a 3 or above did not increase by as much as those taking the exams, however, but it at least indicates schools (or somebody) is encouraging more students of color to take AP exams, with many passing.

The state still lags the nation in the percent of students who take AP exams, which is not a good sign if we intend to be the Sillicon Desert and not a minimum wage wasteland.

The rural blog The Daily Yonder points out that rural students are less likely to take AP exams. This is a big issue for rural economic development, since AP exams indicate a head start on college, and a head start on better jobs. But it is a chicken or the egg argument: are there not good jobs in rural areas because people don't go to college, or do people not go to college because (at least if they intend to stay in their community) they don't see a need to do so for the low wage jobs available in their community?

Arizona still lags the nation in the percent of students who take AP exams, which is not a good sign if we intend to be the Sillicon Desert and not a minimum wage wasteland.

Family's religious involvement tied to less risky teen sexual behavior

You may not expect to see this news from someone on the left, that teens in families with greater religious involvement are less likely to engage in risky sexual behavior, such as having multiple partners or becoming sexually active at an early age. However, male teens in families with high religious involvement are less likely to use contraception. The reason given for the generally lower risk sexual behavior is not because of a focus on abstinence. Rather, the study says, it is an issue of parental involvement and family connectedness, and of parents knowing who their children's social groups are. “This study shows the importance of parents who are involved in their children’s lives and know who their children’s friends are,” said Jennifer Manlove, Ph.D., lead author of the study. “Parents who monitor their children’s activities and peer environments, who engage their families in regular activities, and who foster strong parent-child relationships can help reduce risky sexual behaviors, regardless of family religiosity.”

An end to Father's Day?

Usually it is better to be underestimated by your enemies than to be overestimated. And in my humble estimation, one of the problems facing non-heterosexuals in our country is that we have been overestimated by our enemies. After the LGBTQ community has been blamed for the 9/11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, now those who dislike us are telling people that we are trying to eliminate Father's Day. Whew. No wonder so many gay people are so tired all the time! And I feel really sorry for my friends who are gay AND Jewish, because on top of masterminding all the aforementioned, they have to control Hollywood and Wall Street on top of everything else!

(And if you don't realize that this blog is tongue-in-cheek, then quit reading it and go back to watching Fox News)

Moving to the 'burbs to escape crime? Cops say it harder to patrol out there

The Arizona Republic today had an article about police returning to walk the beat in certain neighborhoods, and in some cases, using Segways. Segways are silent, allowing officers to come stealthly upon criminals in the act, and also let an officer cover more ground in less time than on foot. They also don't use costly gasoline like patrol cars do. However, it's harder to put cops on the beat in sprawling communities, and the need for an additional precinct further north was one of the reasons Phoenix went to city voters for an additional 0.2% sales tax last year. Perhaps there are some safety advantages to living in the city?

When the Wall Street Journal sounds like Michael Moore, something is up

The Wall Street Journal did a story and posted a blog recently about a patient in Texas who has leukemia and was asked for $45,000 up front before even being seen by the M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, and then another $60,000 up front to begin chemotherapy treatment. And the patient had insurance. But unfortunately, the patient's limited-benefit plan, underwritten by United Health and marketed by AARP, only covers $37,000 a year in benefits, so the hospital refused to bill the insurance company and demanded payment up front. This is part of an increasing trend of hospitals demanding cash up front for treatment, as they are swimming in rising mountains of bad debt.

Senator Charles Grassley (R-IA) is usually a pretty practical guy, but has a temper and gets frustrated when he hears about such things. When this patient appeared via video link before the Senate Finance Committee, Grassley seemed to suggest that hospitals such as M.D. Anderson, which receive some government funding, should provide more charity care. I am glad Senator Grassley shares America's frustrations, but don't we need some more comprehensive solution to America's health care problems than saying hospitals should just provide more charity care?

Some elderly losing the right to vote

Shirley Preiss was born in Kentucky in 1910, a decade before the ratification of the 19th Amendment granted women the right to vote, and decades before the right to vote was given to 18 year olds. Shirley voted for the first time in the election of 1932, and was eager to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Arizona presidential primary in February of this year. However, she was unable to. Shirley is one of the native-born American citizens who are losing their right to vote in Arizona due to relatively new voter ID laws. Those who were born before birth certificates were common, including many Native Americans born more recently on reservations, are unable to prove their citizenship and obtain the necessary ID to vote in Arizona. Shirley attempted to find elementary school records, but found her elementary school in Kentucky has long since closed. Watch the video from Channel 5.

Americans and Don Rumsfeld looking to save gasoline

The nice thing about blogs is that we can crib from each other. There is a reason the word "net" is in internet. This is from the Center for American Progress:

With soaring oil prices, Americans are increasingly turning to Amtrak, which "saw record numbers in May when ridership rose 12.3 percent from a year earlier." The Bush administration, however, is threatening to veto legislation that would fund the passenger railroad for the next five years.

And finally: Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has bought a new, fuel-efficient Vespa. According to the DC Examiner, "Mr. Macho recently stopped by the Vespa dealership in Glover Park and took home a LXV 150 scooter, which can reach speeds of up to 60 miles per hour." When asked about his purchase, Rumsfeld refused to comment.

We can't continue this trend - population vs. vehicle miles traveled

Clinton's graceful concession

I want to share Hillary Clinton's concession speech, for those of you who did not see it. Of course, it is 30 minutes, but you can fast forward if you wish. Sometimes the best speeches are concession speeches. Candidates don't have to listen to their handlers, and they can say what they really want to say. Yes, to my LGBT friends who said Hillary refused to specifically talk about the rights of gays, she did actually use the word "gay" several times in the speech. And although I voted for Barack Obama, I have no doubt that Hillary Clinton would have been a dogged fighter for the opportunity and rights of all Americans.

Message to Obama: 90% of success is just showing up

A recent blog post in the Daily Yonder explains the major reason Barack Obama did so poorly in poor, rural areas: he didn't show up. He showed up in a few cities in Kentucky and West Virginia, but snubbed rural voters. The blog also takes to task one of my favorite columnists, Leonard Pitts, for criticizing the roughly 20% of West Virginia voters who said race was a factor in their decision, and in those cases, voted overwhelmingly for Clinton. However, that percent was virtually the same across the country, and in many states those who said race was an important factor voted for Obama. Jesse Jackson, probably more polarizing than Obama, actually did show up in rural, white Appalachia in 1988, and won more of the vote than Obama did in '08, in spite of the fact that Jesse Jackson ran in a crowded field. So everyone else is saying right now that what Obama needs to do to unite Democrats and our nation is to pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate. In fact, the answer might be more simple for Obama: just start showing up.

An idea to help those in need

Yesterday at Safeway, I was asked if I wanted to donate a dollar on top of my grocery bill to their cause of the month (or more appropriately, their disease of the month), which this month is prostate cancer. I said no, in part because my personal budget is a little squeezed right now and I plan my charitable giving and actually give outside of the grocery store. But occasionally, when it's the right organization or cause, I give to it. Costco usually hits me up for a dollar donation when I check out as well, and it usually goes to fund research for some disease.

Does anyone else find it odd that grocery stores don't raise funds to immediately help those in need? Perhaps a domestic violence shelter? At last count, about half of those fleeing domestic violence and seeking to stay at a shelter are turned away in Arizona for a lack of space. Isn't this a far more immediate problem that we could fix far more quickly than, say, curing cancer? I'm not saying cancer or heart disease aren't important priorities. But I sat in a meeting a couple months ago with a representative from Arizona's food banks, and she said that they are faced with the dual problem of more families in need due to layoffs, foreclosures, etc., while also having higher food prices and fewer donations to food banks. With the high price of food, retailers and wholesalers are far less likely to donate food to a food bank. A year ago, food banks in Arizona could get 10 pounds of food for a dollar, while now they can buy about 3.5 pounds for a dollar. So why not collect money at the checkout stand for the Association of Arizona Food Banks, the Salvation Army, or other organizations to whom we normally give during the holidays? I think, unfortunately, that part of the answer is that in higher income neighborhoods, people see diseases as something that may affect them. They may have had a friend or family member affected by a disease, or they may be at risk of it themselves. They are helping "us." In helping the hungry, the homeless, or those down on their luck, they are helping "them" out of a situation they feel they will never personally experience. It's easy to blame "them" for not working harder, not making better life choices, etc.

Gay Marriage Could Boost California Economy

From the Center for American Progress:

CIVIL RIGHTS -- GAY MARRIAGE MAY PROVIDE BOOST TO CALIFORNIA ECONOMY: Last month, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) said that he hopes his state's Supreme Court ruling allowing gay marriages would encourage more couples to come to the state to be wed and boost the state's economy. Indeed, the San Francisco Convention and Visitors Bureau also expects a tourism boom this summer, and its website now "promotes a gay travel section." The Los Angeles Times reports today that "one UCLA study projects that same-sex unions could provide a $370-million shot in the arm to the state economy over the next three years." The Times adds, "By some estimates, weddings and commitment ceremonies for same-sex couples generate $1 billion a year in revenue." PlanetOut, a media and entertainment company that conducts surveys about gay and lesbian consumers, "says gay consumers...spend about 10 [percent] more on nuptials" than their straight counterparts. Tom Rosa, owner of the Cake and Art bakery in Santa Monica said, "Being in West Hollywood, we've been inundated...after the ruling, the phone really picked up."