Thursday, November 20, 2008

How much of McCain win in Appalachia and South was due to race?

Barack Obama didn't win West Virginia, which still tends to be a pretty Democratic state. Bill Clinton won it both times, as did Jimmy Carter at least once, and most Democrats before that. I was told by a Democratic legislator in Arizona on election night that of course Obama didn't contest West Virginia, because "they'd hang him." Yet this analysis shows that Obama did about as well in Appalachia as John Kerry did, and Obama got about the same percent of the White vote in West Virginia as he did nationally. The biggest area of racial backlash may have been in Alabama, where Obama got 10% of the White vote, compared to the 19% of the White vote that Kerry got four years earlier. So yes, race was probably a small factor, but obviously didn't decide the race for the White House.

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